It’s been warmer, but not drier

If you think it’s been warmer than the average January and February the past couple of months, you would be correct. If you think it’s been drier than normal the first two months of the year, you may be surprised to learn you’re wrong.
Aided by an early-February rainstorm and the recent end-of-February snowstorm, Custer is actually half an inch higher for precipitation than the historical average for the first two months of the season.
On average, Custer receives .33 inches of precipitation in January and .67 inches in February. While Custer was nearly dead on its average for January in 2024—with .31 inches of precipitation—it was much higher in February with 1.20 inches of precipitation according to the official precipitation readings registered by the National Weather Service.
Since October, Custer has received 4.44 inches of precipitation, well above the historical average of 3.42 inches. This was heavily aided by the precipitation received last October, which was 2.44 inches, almost an inch over the historical average of 1.47 inches.
On average, Custer receives 19.65 inches of precipitation in a calendar year and 56 inches of snow.
In terms of temperature, Custer averaged a high of 34.3 degrees and a low of 10.5 degrees in January, which is actually below the historical averages of 37 and 15. This January’s average was dragged down by the five-day cold snap that hit Jan. 11-15, when subzero temperatures lingered, including a low of -30 on Jan. 14. On Jan. 13, the high in Custer was -10, while the low was -26.
February has been warmer, however, as the month has seen an average high of 41.3 degrees and an average low of 20.8 degrees. Historically, those numbers are 38 and 17.
Kyle Carstens, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Rapid City, said overall things have been relatively warm and dry this winter in the area, with the most unusual aspect perhaps being the lack of cold spells minus the one in January.
“We haven’t had many cold spells, and the ones we have had have been relatively short,” he said.
The U.S. is in an El Niño pattern, a naturally-occurring climate pattern associated with warming of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This can significantly influence weather patterns, ocean conditions and marine fisheries worldwide.
Carstens said El Niño winters tend to be above-average in terms of temperatures. With the typically wettest months of March, April and May coming up, Carstens said the precipitation outlook isn’t as clear, but it looks as if slightly above-average temperatures will continue.
“If we get a few good, wet systems in here we can make up the (precipitation) deficit pretty fast,” he said.
Because of the lack of snow cover and frequent wind, fire danger has been an issue this winter, including a red flag fire warning that was issued Feb. 26. A red flag warning means warm temperatures, very low humidities and stronger winds are expected to combine to produce an increased risk of fire danger.
U.S. Forest Service forest fuels specialist Chris Stover said the forest does have shoulder seasons for fire, with exposed fuels that are receptive to fire. Stover said anecdotally the forest floor is more open due to less snow than normal, adding that while for people to be able to see cured available fuels on the forest from the southern part of the Hills all the way up to Rapid City and Sturgis is pretty common, seeing such bare ground farther north into the Hills is unusual.
Forest Service personnel noted that in watching videos of the annual Nemo Outhouse Races there was no snow on the ground, which is abnormal.
“Normally we have decent snow cover throughout the forest,” he said. “We do have fire danger now because of all the exposed fuels.”
It’s also a blustery time of year, Stover noted, with lower humidity.
None of this means that there will be a higher fire danger this summer, however.
“Talk to me in June,” he said. “You can have dry winters and the next thing you know we are filling sand bags mid-May.”
When there is dry ground and wind, the Forest Service reminds those who want to burn slash piles to take great precaution in doing so. That means not only when conditions are right at the time of the burn, but conditions remain right for the next several days as well.
Stover said it’s important to work the edges of slash piles and feel them with the back of your hand to ensure they are completely out. It doesn’t take much for the piles to reignite under the right circumstances.
“Most folks are really focused on the conditions we have right now,” he said. “You have to do that, but we want to be looking at weather three, five, seven days out. That’s more important than what (weather) you have now.”